Agriculture is a re-occurring theme on InspectorSTOCK.com. Back in September the Inspector profiled Hemisphere GPS. It has done well since then. Back when the Inspector profiled HEM, it was trading at $2.19. Today, April 8 2008, it closed at $3.33. Don’t despair, there is still time to get in on this stock. Its going higher.
Hemisphere GPS Inc is engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of global positioning system (GPS) products for guidance and machine control applications mostly used in agriculture, but also for use in marine and mining. A huge part of their business is providing farming vehicles such as tractors with driver assistance or “auto-pilot.” The GPS couples with auto-steering platforms to eliminate overlap. Ultimately the systems eliminate driver fatigue and reduce input costs. On December 20, 2007, HEM acquired all outstanding shares of Beeline Technologies Pty Ltd, which provide “drive by wire” technology and OEM tractor integration.
Below is a link to an absolutely amazing interview with Steven Koles, president and CEO of Hemisphere GPS. Check it out! This interview is very informative and gives you a chance to hear from the CEO directly. If you plan to buy this stock, you must check it out.
As the CEO Steven Koles mentions in his interview, GPS/auto-steering is no longer a discretionary product for strip tilling but more and more an essential part of the agriculture business. It reduces input costs and ultimately pays for itself. Agriculture is under tremendous pressure to meet rising demands in an increasingly unpredictable climate. Technology in general helps to maximize yields so farmers can cash in on rising crop prices. In short, farmers have every incentive to invest in technology, so they can sell more of their precious commodities.
DISCLOSURE: I own shares in Hemisphere GPS. You might want some too! Do your own research. For example, watch the interview.
Back on March 17 2008, the Inspector re-recommended Bunge. The stock price had just taken a dive, and like a vulture, the Inspector recommended diving in and enjoying the easy pickings – there is nothing quite like fresh road-kill – mmmm. At around $90, it was an easy call. And there was ample time to enjoy this feast. On March 31st the stock saw $86 – tasty indeed! Especially delectable at the peak of $104 today (the stock is/was trading between $101 and $104 on April 7th.) Long story short, 15% in a couple of weeks is always nice.
The Inspector recommends selling a portion of your position if you have just made over 12% - 15% Re-buy some more on a dip. This is just a suggestion – in reality, you should be good either way. If tomorrow the stock runs up some more, this suggestion is even more relevant, if it trickles back down you may want to hold on.
The agriculture sector is red-hot. Bunge is benefiting from this along with most other stocks in this space. The crazy sell-off of Bunge back in March was the reason behind the Inspector’s high recommendation. It is not necessarily the best Ag play, but was a decent short-term trade, and for you patient investors, remains a decent long-term play. The Inspector’s long-term target for Bunge is in the $105 – $115 range. If/when Bunge pulls back to around $90, do not hesitate, take the jump – dive in for some more.
On the other hand, if you’ve sold off a position in Bunge, you may want to hold on to your remaining Bunge position and pick up some Agrium with the cash you made from selling your Bunge position.
Agrium is a global producer and marketer of agricultural nutrients, industrial products and specialty products. Agrium produces and markets three primary groups of nutrients: nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, as well as controlled-release products and micronutrients.
Agrium has recently run up a lot, so best bet is wait for some dog-day afternoons when there is a general market sell-off/panic/pull-back – we are in a volatile market right now and there should be some opportunity for getting in while the getting’s good.
Bottom line, the Inspector recommends both Bunge and Agrium. Of the two, Agrium has more explosive growth potential, where-as under $90, Bunge represents crazy value. Buy these Ag plays on the dips.
DISCLOSURE: I own shares of Bunge and Agrium. Do your own research - don't believe everything you read or hear. Its all about the facts, nothing but the facts. Opinions are worthless (if they are not backed up by facts and hold up under scrutiny).
It’s never easy to deliver bad-news, but here it goes. The Inspector’s picks to date are down collectively 2.29%. It would be easy to point out that in such a dismal market where many portfolios are down 20%, 2.29% aint bad – but it is. This is no April fool’s joke – these are the facts. The Inspector lives by the facts, good or bad.
In reality, many of the stocks that are down since 1st mention were re-mentioned at later dates with recommendations to buy – these are good stocks that happen to be down. Bunge is a strong buy right now. Royal Bank is a strong buy. Petro-Canada is a buy. GE is a buy. BCE is a buy. Teranet is a buy.
Looking at the spread-sheet below, you will notice that the all-star picks are RIM, Potash and Hemisphere GPS. Kick-ass! If you own these stocks, congrats!
Now, for the ugly picks. These are the dogs that should taken out back and given the Old Yeller treatment: Nova Chemicals and Transgaming. BANG!, BANG! As the late Hunter S Thompson would say, "Die you filthy animals!"
Another disappointment, though by no means a rabid dog, is Anatolia. There is still faint hope for Anatolia, but really there are better places to put your money. The Inspector recommends selling this puppy.
Another pair of questionable animals are Cameco and Thomson - they have been disappointing though their performance is not entirely unexpected. There is more up than down on these suckers.
Now for the Indian Tiger. Despite making head-lines for a $2500 car and buying Land Rover and Jaguar, Tata Motors has been somewhat of a flat-liner. If you own this, I would hold on to it.
A nice pick has been good old TAP. Molson Coors has done very nicely and is still a buy. Nothing like hitting the bottle after you shoot the rapid dogs - just kidding, drink responsibly (then kill the rabid dogs).
Well, now for some grand-fatherly advice from the Inspector. Make sure you have your exit strategies ready with any stock – especially in these crazy times. Markets are hugely volatile right now. Stocks seem to run up modestly on good news, while any bad news simply destroys them. It is tempting to buy into so-called value plays, but be careful - some of the stock declines are justified, while others are not. And sometimes, even when the research looks good and the numbers point to a healthy business, the stock drops anyway.
Below is an updated spread-sheet that tracks the Inspector Stock picks. It represents a very pessimistic view so that readers will know that the Inspector is not hiding anything or sugar-coating the negative news.
Do not have faith! There is no such thing as hope in the stock market. That will lose you more money than handing your wallet to a crack-addict. Stick to the facts – good or bad. If you question owning a stock when it is down then you should not own that stock. You must be comfortable owning a stock even when it is down. This is true of Bunge, PCA and GE. (BCE also belongs in this category, though it is a calculated bet with favorable odds – its downside relatively small compared to the upside).
A very safe bet right now is CN Rail. This is a long-term buy and hold stock, rare in the current volitile market.
Potash is a screamer and so is RIM – despite high PE ratios – solid.
HEM Hemisphere GPS is at a very attractive entry point right now. So is AG Growth Income Fund. Canadian Hydro developers is a great buying opportunity – way undervalued stock. Boralex is not bad.
Want to sleep at night? Teranet and CML Healthcare.
DISCLOSURE: I own shares of Bunge. As always, do your own investment research. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment. Relative to the instability of financials, agriculture is a sector that can offer some stability and growth.
Nice Systems is an Isrealli tech company that provides both multi-media recording solutions used primarilly for call centers and telephony applications as well as security solutions for private and public sectors. Nice has been a personal favorite stock of the Inspector's for the last four years. Recently, it has touched lows not seen for a very long time. It is the Inspector's sincere belief that NICE is suffering from "guilt by association." NICE is heavily associated with financial institutions, since they are their main customers. However, as pointed out recently by UBS analyst Darren Shaw, there is a lot of growth left for this stock.
The appetite for call centers and therefore call center technology is unrelenting. A recession in the US will not change that. The explosion of call centers around the globe continues to expand. Secondly, the penetration of call center technology into previously unsophisticated operations now made affordable by open standards most explicitly demonstrated by Voice over IP and VXML has made call recording and video/desktop capture more pervasive.
Lastly, the plight of both public and private sector in regards to security bodes well for NICE. As sad as it is to admit, September 11 was a boon to business. Homeland security budgets grew massive and a lot of that money went into the kind of tech that NICE provides. The point is, that need is not going away. The growth may not be as dramatic 7 years after September 11, but it is still a priority for all governments. In short, the need for what NICE provides is not going away anytime soon.
At the current prices, NICE is looking NICE.
DISCLOSURE: I own shares of NICE ADR. Always do your homework. Say no to drugs. Eat your veggies. Be NICE to your MOM!
The conservative stock recommendation for this week is . . . drum roll . . . Canadian National Railway (CNR trades on TSX). Yes, this is the stock Bill Gates owns in huge quantity. Yes, this is the sector Mr. Warren Buffet is invested in as well. Think you are smarter than those two? CN Rail slid in latter part of 07, but recently bounced on good forth quarter earnings and an announced 10% dividend increase. The future is bright for this stock.
2008 has already proven to be volatile and looks to be a very tricky year for investors. The most minute good or bad news sends massive ripples through the market. The Inspector recommends sticking with a solid stock, through good and bad. CN is such a stock. Buy it on the dips.
As always, never buy or sell all at once. Average out your price by buying or selling in increments, usually in about two or three different transactions. Too many people seem to think that buying all at once is cheaper, since it incurs lower transaction fees. Think about how little a stock price needs to move to pay out that transaction fee.
Another piece of advice: keep your eye on your target. For CN, the Inspector’s target is to buy and hold, barring any catastrophes. The Inspector plans to add to the position on dips, or in the case of a substantial run-up, sell a portion. It is good to remain flexible.
DISCLOSURE: I own shares in CN Rail. It’s a good company and a good sector to be in. However, don’t take the Inspector’s word for it – always do your own research!
Best advice the Inspector has is to limit your exposure to over-valued stocks. For example, Potash recently crashed back to earth. Back in December the Inspector profiled Potash a second time, after a huge run up. I sold a significant portion of my holding and hopefully you followed suit if you were in a similar circumstance. Within a few weeks after selling a significant portion of my holding, Potash ran up even further. Rather than kick myself for missing $146, I was happy to have locked in a profit and now that is has come crashing down I can arrogantly say “told you so.” Never get too greedy! When you have a chance to take 15% off the table, especially with a volatile stock in a volatile market, do not hesitate!
The Inspector’s new year’s resolution is to be extremely vigilant about the investment advise published. 2007 was a good year, but 2008 looks to be a very tricky year and nothing can be taken lightly. One of the improvements for the InspectorSTOCK.com blog will be more frequent updates on all stocks mentioned. Often times a stock is profiled and not revisited once circumstances change – the Inspector does not want to mislead. For this reason, the Inspector will regularly update all stocks mentioned. None the less, the onus is always on you the reader, to research fully any investment advice presented. Don’t trust anyone! Certainly not me! Trust the facts!
SELL! In case you did not read the 2007 Inspector STOCK re-cap, several stocks have fallen out of favour with the Inspector since profiling them. They include Canadian Tire and KRY. This was communicated January 1st 2008. The Inspector now adds to the sell list, Rogers Communications.
BUY! Petro-Canada is a good value. Be prepared for ups and downs – long-term though, this stock will gain modestly and allow you to sleep at night.
In the next blog entry, the Inspector will profile a company not covered before that will allow further restful nights. A conservative stock that you can count on during a very perilous investment climate. Have no fear, the Inspector is here!
DISLCOUSRE: I own shares in Petro-Canada, Potash, Rogers and CRYSTALLEX. Chavez is a commie bastard!
Welcome to my blog dedicated to stock market analysis and investment advice. I am a stock enthusiast with a solid track-record. The focus of my blog is INVESTING in small, mid and large cap US and Canadian publicly traded companies. I typically go for a 12 – 18 month investment window. Making money is hard work and you must put in the time if you want to be consistently successful.
I am a stock enthusiast with a solid track-record, which you can SEE FOR YOURSELF! There is no need to take my word for anything - track my picks in Google Finance or Yahoo Finance – I’ll let the facts speak for themselves. My focus is INVESTING in small, mid and large cap US and Canadian publicly traded companies. I typically go for a 12 – 18 month investment window.
