According to BMO analyst Mark Steele, "a recent 'abnormal' move in the company's credit default swap spread (which reflects the perceived risk of owning a company's debt), may mean that the world's biggest maker of fertilizer will be taken over or is in negotiations to merge with another company." To me this is a win/win situation. Sell part of your position and lock in profit. Now, if the supposed take-over actually happens, the rest of your shares will accumulate more profit. If the crystal ball is wrong, and the take-over does not go through, eventually the price will drop down to an attractive price, and you can re-buy.
In these dark days of credit crunch panic, its nice to get a little early Christmas present. Thanks Santa.
I am still long on fertilizer and agriculture in general. Stay tuned!
DISCLOSURE: I own shares of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. Always do your own research before buying a stock or any other investment. Most important, read my blog!
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