Saturday, June 30, 2007

Making Green with Green - GHG Emission Credit Participation Corp

Carbon emissions trading is already big-business in Europe. A Canadian company focused on Carbon emissions trading has filed a preliminary prospectus in respect of an IPO to be listed on the TSX – the company is GHG Emission Credit Participation Corp.


the following quote is from marketwire:


"The Corporation has been formed to provide investors with exposure to Carbon Emission Credits, which are intended to assist companies, industries and governments achieve greenhouse gas ("GHG") emission reduction targets. The Corporation will seek to acquire Carbon Emission Credits and assets that provide direct and indirect exposure to Carbon Emission Credits, both through exchanges where Carbon Emission Credits are bought and sold, and through private transactions, typically with entities whose activities generate Carbon Emission Credits, with the objective of achieving capital appreciation."



Emissions trading is currently highly unregulated and therefore from an investor’s perspective, risky. However, the growth potential is probably worth the risk. This could be Canada’s IPO of the year. Not quite as dramatic an IPO as Tim Horton’s, but with the draught of IPO’s since the decision by the Conservative government to tax income trusts back on Halloween of 06, there isn’t a whole lot of excitement in IPO land. What’s exciting about this IPO is that it is a brand new field and thus the sky is the limit – concerns about global warming are not going to go away. The wild west nature of carbon emissions trading is a worry, but the upside potential may be just too tempting for me to pass up. I'm thinking green!

Friday, June 29, 2007

Sicko Stock Pick - CML Healthcare

TOP PICK: CML Healthcare

clc.un - trades on the TSX


My absolute favorite stock as of right now - conservative investment. Small cap Canadian healthcare income trust. CML Healthcare is a community-based provider of laboratory testing services in Ontario and a provider of medical imaging services in Canada.

Check out CML Healthcare Income Fund on Google Finance




Back in April, this what Royal Bank had to say:


RBC CM Research Highlights CML Healthcare (CLC.UN) - $15.96 - LBO/Acquisition Possible –Price Target Increased Sector Perform, Average Risk – Price Target: $17.50 RBC CM believes CML is an attractive business and potential acquisition candidate due to a highly predictable and relatively safe revenue stream, industry leading margins (~50%), and favourable long-term prospects for its core business. In February 2007, MDS sold its Diagnostic division to Borealis Infrastructure at approximately 12-13x TTM EV/EBITDA. While this transaction does provide a precedent, CML currently trades at a 12.9x multiple. However, an acquirer might be willing to pay a premium to get a turnkey business that requires no "restructuring or operational enhancements". RBC CM’s LBO model shows that a takeout at 14.5x TTM EV/EBITDA (13.4% premium) would still yield an IRR ~16%. More interestingly, pension funds and other similar tax advantaged players may find CML more attractive than most other market participants as these groups likely have the ability to arbitrage the value of the tax. RBC CM’s new target goes to $17.50 (previously $14.00) and includes a 25% probability of a tax-advantaged fund acquisition of CML.


Since April 2007, CLC.UN continues to rise, but it is still a safe bet in MY opinion.


DISCLOSURE: I own shares in CML Healthcare (CLC.UN)

Do your own research!

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Speculative Stock - TransGaming

3 days into my blog, after describing myself as conservative and cautious, I am about to profile a very speculative stock. The company is TransGaming Inc. which trades as TNG on TSX Venture exchange. This company is NOT profitable. As of last November, it has spent about $4.6 million and has a cumulative deficit of $4.1 million. According to president and chief executive Vikas Gupta, the focus of this company is to enable computer games written for one computer platform such as Windows to run on other machines, such as the Sony Playstation2 and PSP, Xbox, or mac or linux. TransGaming’s technology was developed seven years ago by founder and chief technology officer Gavriel State, formerly a developer at Corel. The CFO is Dennis Ensing. The trio operate their business from Toronto and Ottawa and have about two dozen employees.


TransGamings’s initial main product was "Cedega" which allows Windows games to run on Linux systems and represents about 70% of its revenue. It now has more than 12,000 online subscribers, generating about $1 million. The company also licenses its technology to game publishers. Though the company is not making a profit, sales are rising, thanks to TransGaming's other major product, “Cider.” The company started out with a share price of about 20 cents, and recently hit 70 cents, mainly on the news of a new deal with Electronic Arts to bring its popular titles to Apple’s MAC OSX platform using “Cider.”



“Electronic Arts Inc. has announced plans to bring top-tier games to MAC OS X this summer powered by TransGaming's Cider™ engine, including: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix™, Madden NFL® 08, Tiger Woods PGA TOUR® 08, Need for Speed™ Carbon, Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ and Battlefield 2142™.”


Full Article on TransGaming's Website


If this company has demonstrated anything at all, it is perseverance. Operating a start-up in Canada is not easy – available investment dollars are a pittance compared to venture capital available south of the border. Surviving this long says a lot. This, together with recent deals announced, makes me think good times are ahead. I can only assume that gaming market will continue to grow on the Apple/MAC platform along with the Linux market, though I have not talked to any gaming enthusiasts to verify how good the ported games work. In any case, an interesting story here.


Check out TransGaming's Chart and related news on Google Finance


Disclosure:I do not own any TransGaming stock

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

iPhone Release No Threat to RIM

Despite the hype, early reviews suggest a few negatives in regards to the iPhone - namely the keyboard and the service provider (AT&T) EDIT:( Apple chose to go with out of date Edge technology in addition to an apparent gamble with Wi-fi - Edge has an access speed of 200 kbps - translation LAME! Edge also has serious latency problems. Users can expect a 20- to 30-second wait per relatively graphics-light Web-page download using Edge). This is not to suggest that the iPhone is in anyway destined for failure, but it is weak in the exact areas Blackberry is strong. Blackberry also has proven rock-solid security. Royal Bank has rated Research in Motion (RIMM) Outperform, with an Above Average Risk Rating and a price target of US$180.00.

From RBC:

“Research in Motion should post a solid Q1/08 based on strong product momentum. Sales of the Blackberry Pearl continue to be strong, while the 8800 and 8830 models continue to sell well plus and the newly launched Blackberry Curve is selling strongly even as Apple Inc. launches the iPhone. Channel checks conducted by RBC CM indicate that RIM sold 80,000 – 90,000 Curves to date, with no evident slowdown ahead of Apple's iPhone launch June. 29. RIM sales may benefit from the iPhone, as over 1 million buyers are expected to storm Cingular stores; conversely, 'Headline risk' from the iPhone launch may restrain RIM's valuation multiple and given high expectations, further interim upside in RIM shares may require vigorous results above RBC CM’s outlook.”


Check out RIM's chart and related info on Google Finance


Not bad, eh?



Disclosure: I do not own any shares of Research in Motion (RIMM)

Article on theStreet.com "RIM Puts iPhone Hype on Mute"


"Sentiments like this could foreshadow, a knee-jerk reaction to RIM's stock, with some traders choosing to sell it after the earnings. But eventually, says Kelmon, what's good for the iPhone may prove good for RIM."

If you are looking to buy RIM, you may get a good opportunity if IRRATIONAL panic selling occurs after earnings report. How will you know if irrational panic selling is occurring? If earnings beat expectations, but share-prices fall anyway, then that is your chance to get in at a good price. See post below in regards to irrational selling behavior and mob mentality.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Hello World!

Welcome to my blog.

The stock market is fast paced and chaotic, but a patient and informed approach is one of the keys to staying ahead in the game. Being informed will help you make the right decisions. Staying calm will help you avoid the panic that can cloud your decision-making. Emotions are bad for trading and investing – stick with the facts. Traders and investors often move in huge numbers in the same direction, and knowing why they do so and comparing this to the underlying market conditions and geo-political climate will help you decide whether you should join them or go against the grain. Often, group irrationality can make you money.