April Fools! Not Really – Well, Maybe

It’s never easy to deliver bad-news, but here it goes. The Inspector’s picks to date are down collectively 2.29%. It would be easy to point out that in such a dismal market where many portfolios are down 20%, 2.29% aint bad – but it is. This is no April fool’s joke – these are the facts. The Inspector lives by the facts, good or bad.

In reality, many of the stocks that are down since 1st mention were re-mentioned at later dates with recommendations to buy – these are good stocks that happen to be down. Bunge is a strong buy right now. Royal Bank is a strong buy. Petro-Canada is a buy. GE is a buy. BCE is a buy. Teranet is a buy.

Looking at the spread-sheet below, you will notice that the all-star picks are RIM, Potash and Hemisphere GPS. Kick-ass! If you own these stocks, congrats!

Now, for the ugly picks. These are the dogs that should taken out back and given the Old Yeller treatment: Nova Chemicals and Transgaming. BANG!, BANG! As the late Hunter S Thompson would say, "Die you filthy animals!"

Another disappointment, though by no means a rabid dog, is Anatolia. There is still faint hope for Anatolia, but really there are better places to put your money. The Inspector recommends selling this puppy.

Another pair of questionable animals are Cameco and Thomson - they have been disappointing though their performance is not entirely unexpected. There is more up than down on these suckers.

Now for the Indian Tiger. Despite making head-lines for a $2500 car and buying Land Rover and Jaguar, Tata Motors has been somewhat of a flat-liner. If you own this, I would hold on to it.

A nice pick has been good old TAP. Molson Coors has done very nicely and is still a buy. Nothing like hitting the bottle after you shoot the rapid dogs - just kidding, drink responsibly (then kill the rabid dogs).

Well, now for some grand-fatherly advice from the Inspector. Make sure you have your exit strategies ready with any stock – especially in these crazy times. Markets are hugely volatile right now. Stocks seem to run up modestly on good news, while any bad news simply destroys them. It is tempting to buy into so-called value plays, but be careful - some of the stock declines are justified, while others are not. And sometimes, even when the research looks good and the numbers point to a healthy business, the stock drops anyway.

Below is an updated spread-sheet that tracks the Inspector Stock picks. It represents a very pessimistic view so that readers will know that the Inspector is not hiding anything or sugar-coating the negative news.

Here's a link to the spread-sheet for all you email subscribers that can't see the embedded object - shame on you for not visiting the site!

Do not have faith! There is no such thing as hope in the stock market. That will lose you more money than handing your wallet to a crack-addict. Stick to the facts – good or bad. If you question owning a stock when it is down then you should not own that stock. You must be comfortable owning a stock even when it is down. This is true of Bunge, PCA and GE. (BCE also belongs in this category, though it is a calculated bet with favorable odds – its downside relatively small compared to the upside).

A very safe bet right now is CN Rail. This is a long-term buy and hold stock, rare in the current volitile market.

Potash is a screamer and so is RIM – despite high PE ratios – solid.

HEM Hemisphere GPS is at a very attractive entry point right now. So is AG Growth Income Fund. Canadian Hydro developers is a great buying opportunity – way undervalued stock. Boralex is not bad.

Want to sleep at night? Teranet and CML Healthcare.

Do your own research!

Bang!